Houston Astros at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jake MeyersBatting2-4, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Jose UrquidyPitching3.1 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Yankees- Gleyber TorresBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching2.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bader singled to right, Torres scored, Kiner-Falefa to second, LeMahieu to third.9–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging9–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking9–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 29–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 19–6
- 6Torres doubled to left, Bauers scored, Judge to third.9–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–6
- 6Maldonado homered to left (420 feet).9–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 19–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging8–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–5
- 6Meyers homered to left center (423 feet), McCormick scored and Peña scored.8–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–5
- 4Judge walked, Bader scored, Bauers to second, Volpe to third.5–5
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball 45–5
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 35–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 25–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 4Bauers walked, Kiner-Falefa scored, Volpe to second, Bader to third.5–4
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 45–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking5–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 35–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 25–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 4Volpe hit by pitch, LeMahieu scored, Bader to second, Kiner-Falefa to third.5–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 35–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging5–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging5–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 25–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 4Bader singled to left, Torres scored, Kiner-Falefa to second, LeMahieu to third.5–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 48%
- Fair odds
- NYY -104
- HOU +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.1 – 4.1 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −1 | HOU: Jose Urquidy: team allows 0.66 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +15 Elo | HOU 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.322nd of 30 |
| 6th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3032–24 | Road vs home | 35–2710th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 1–2 NYY in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.