Houston Astros at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Justin VerlanderPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Yankees- Jake BauersBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nestor CortesPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Torres homered to right center (380 feet).1–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 31–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 21–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 5Bauers homered to right (410 feet).1–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Altuve homered to left (403 feet).1–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Volpe hit sacrifice fly to center, Kiner-Falefa scored, Bader to third.0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 48%
- Fair odds
- NYY -103
- HOU +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.1 – 4.2 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −4 | HOU: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYY: Nestor Cortes: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +16 Elo | HOU 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 7th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.310th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | 0.016th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3032–23 | Road vs home | 34–2710th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 1–1 NYY in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.