New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Giancarlo StantonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching2.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
White Sox- Oscar ColasBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mike ClevingerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Anderson singled to center, Andrus scored.2–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–8
- 8Andrus doubled to left, Colás scored, Vaughn scored and Grandal scored.2–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–5
- 7Stanton homered to right center (408 feet).2–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 5Thompson scored on error, Jiménez safe at first on fielding error by second baseman Torres.1–5
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 21–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 4Stanton grounded out to shortstop, Judge scored.1–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 30–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 3Moncada doubled to center, Robert Jr. scored.0–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 10–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 2Colás homered to right center (430 feet), Grandal scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 2Grandal singled to left, Moncada scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
White Sox 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 50%
- Fair odds
- CHW -101
- NYY +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.1 – 4.1 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +11 | NYY: Ian Hamilton (no track record yet) · CHW: Mike Clevinger: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +1 Elo | NYY 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.826th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 18th of 3024–27 | Road vs home | 24–3025th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 2–3 CHW in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.