New York Yankees at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Anthony VolpeBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Marlins- Luis ArraezBatting3-5, 3 RBI
- Eury PerezPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Burger singled to center, Arraez scored, De La Cruz to third.7–8
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–8
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 27–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul7–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–8
- 9Arraez tripled to right, Chisholm Jr. scored and Bell scored.7–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–7
- 9Fortes scored on error and Gurriel scored, Bell safe at first on throwing error by pitcher Holmes, Chisholm Jr. safe at third on error.7–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 27–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–5
- 8De La Cruz doubled to left, Bell scored.7–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking7–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 17–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–2
- 6Burger singled to right, Bell scored, Arraez to second.7–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–1
- 6Rortvedt homered to right (398 feet).7–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–1
- 5McKinney grounded into fielder's choice to second, Stanton scored, Bader out at second.6–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 5Torres scored on Brazoban wild pitch, Stanton to second on wild pitch by Brazoban.5–1
- 5Torres scored on Brazoban wild pitch, Stanton to second on wild pitch by Brazoban.5–1
- 4Volpe homered to left center (404 feet), McKinney scored.4–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3Arraez singled to left, Wendle scored, Bell to second.2–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Stanton doubled to left, Judge scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 51%
- Fair odds
- MIA -110
- NYY +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 3.9 – 4.1 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +13 | NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.66 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +7 Elo | MIA 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.322nd of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 17th of 3025–29 | Road vs home | 35–257th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 1–1 MIA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.