Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jorge SolerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Eury PerezPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Reds- Christian Encarnacion-StrandBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brandon WilliamsonPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Chisholm Jr. homered to left (357 feet).2–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–5
- 7Steer hit sacrifice fly to center, Friedl scored.1–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 4Votto homered to right (398 feet).1–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Encarnacion-Strand homered to left center (398 feet).1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Friedl tripled to right, Benson scored and De La Cruz scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Soler homered to right center (373 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 48%
- Fair odds
- CIN -109
- MIA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.7 – 4.9 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | −23 | MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.79 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CIN: Brandon Williamson: team allows 1.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +12 Elo | MIA 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.99th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.127th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 21st of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 23rd of 3024–31 | Road vs home | 28–2922nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 1–2 CIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.