Washington Nationals at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Lane ThomasBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Joan AdonPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Reds- TJ FriedlBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching5.2 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Vargas doubled to left, Adams scored.7–3
- 9Pitch 9 : Ball In Play7–3
- 9Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 9Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 26–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging6–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 6Friedl homered to right center (406 feet), Maile scored and De La Cruz scored.6–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 26–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 6Ruiz doubled to left, Meneses scored.6–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking5–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging5–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 25–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 4Thomas steals third base, Thomas scored on throwing error by catcher Maile.5–0
- 4Thomas scored on throwing error by catcher Maile.5–0
- 4Thomas doubled to left, Chavis scored.4–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 4Chavis singled to center, Call scored on fielding error by center fielder Friedl, Chavis to second.3–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 2Thomas hit sacrifice fly to right, Call scored, Chavis to third.2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Garrett doubled to right, Thomas scored, Ruiz to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 58%
- Fair odds
- CIN -123
- WSH +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.9 – 5.4 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +18 | WSH: Joan Adon (no track record yet) · CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.88 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +55 Elo | CIN 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.99th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 20th of 3025–29 | Road vs home | 28–2721st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 1–4 CIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.