Washington Nationals at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Lane ThomasBatting3-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Reds- Matt McLainBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Graham AshcraftPitching8.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Thomas homered to left center (389 feet), Alu scored.6–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 10Alu doubled to right, Vargas scored.4–3
- 10Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–3
- 10Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging3–3
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 33–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 23–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 8Meneses homered to left center (406 feet), Thomas scored.3–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 21–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 6Thomas homered to left center (434 feet).1–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 3De La Cruz homered to left (398 feet).0–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 30–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 1McLain homered to center (422 feet).0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Senzel homered to right (350 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 61%
- Fair odds
- CIN -127
- WSH +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.8 – 5.3 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −20 | +10 | WSH: Patrick Corbin: team allows 1.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CIN: Graham Ashcraft: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +80 Elo | CIN 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 55.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.99th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3024–29 | Road vs home | 28–2620th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 0–4 CIN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.