Washington Nationals at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting4-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Reds- TJ FriedlBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Lyon RichardsonPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Thomas hit sacrifice fly to right, Garrett scored, Abrams to third.6–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 25–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 15–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 4Thomas doubled to left, Abrams scored.5–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 24–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 3Friedl homered to right (386 feet).4–3
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 24–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 2Fairchild singled to left, Senzel scored, Benson to second.4–2
- 2Pitch 8 : Ball In Play4–2
- 2Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 34–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 24–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 14–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 2Votto homered to left (357 feet).4–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 24–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 1Alu singled to center, Meneses scored and Ruiz scored.4–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Thomas homered to center (406 feet).2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Abrams homered to right (402 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 55%
- Fair odds
- CIN -120
- WSH +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 5.0 – 5.4 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −1 | WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CIN: Lyon Richardson (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +35 Elo | CIN 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 54.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.99th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 17th of 3026–29 | Road vs home | 28–2821st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 2–4 CIN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.