Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Josh BellBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Johnny CuetoPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Reds- Christian Encarnacion-StrandBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Graham AshcraftPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9De La Cruz homered to right (352 feet).5–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–4
- 8Bell homered to center (409 feet), Berti scored and Arraez scored.4–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–4
- 6Encarnacion-Strand singled to center, McLain scored, Votto to second.1–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 4Encarnacion-Strand homered to left (390 feet), Votto scored.1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 4Steer homered to left (402 feet).1–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 4Bell homered to left (353 feet).1–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Automatic Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 57%
- Fair odds
- CIN -115
- MIA +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.4 – 4.7 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +7 | MIA: Johnny Cueto: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CIN: Graham Ashcraft: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +46 Elo | CIN 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 3025–32 | Road vs home | 29–3021st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 2–3 CIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.