Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jorge SolerBatting3-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Braxton GarrettPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Reds- TJ FriedlBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Luke WeaverPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Soler homered to center (395 feet), Fortes scored.3–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Fairchild tripled to right, Fairchild scored on throwing error by second baseman Arraez.1–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2Friedl doubled to left, Newman scored.1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Wendle doubled to left, Burger scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 54%
- Fair odds
- CIN -114
- MIA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.6 – 4.9 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −7 | MIA: Braxton Garrett: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CIN: Luke Weaver: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +29 Elo | CIN 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.99th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 24th of 3024–32 | Road vs home | 29–2920th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 1–3 CIN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.