New York Yankees at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Anthony VolpeBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Randy VasquezPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Marlins- Josh BellBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- George SorianoPitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Higashioka singled to center, Allen scored and Bader scored, Volpe thrown out at third.9–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 17–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–4
- 6Bell homered to right (407 feet).7–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 27–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 17–3
- 4Burger doubled to left, De La Cruz scored.7–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–3
- 4Torres singled to left, Cabrera scored, Kiner-Falefa to second.7–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 26–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 4Kiner-Falefa singled to center, Higashioka scored, Cabrera to third.6–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 15–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 4Cabrera singled to center, Bauers scored, Higashioka to second.5–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 3Judge homered to center (464 feet).4–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 33–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 2Burger doubled to center, Sánchez scored.3–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 2Sánchez tripled to right, Chisholm Jr. scored.3–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 2Volpe homered to left center (404 feet), Stanton scored and Bader scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 54%
- Fair odds
- MIA -113
- NYY +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 3.7 – 4.0 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | +4 | NYY: Ian Hamilton: team allows 0.83 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · MIA: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +31 Elo | MIA 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.323rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 19th of 3024–28 | Road vs home | 34–247th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.