Atlanta Braves at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Yonny ChirinosPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Mets- Rafael OrtegaBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Kodai SengaPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Olson homered to right center (455 feet), Riley scored.6–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 24–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–7
- 7Murphy homered to left center (421 feet).4–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–7
- 5Ortega singled to right, Narváez scored and Vientos scored, Stewart to third.3–7
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 23–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 5Stewart reached first base on catcher's interference, Vogelbach to home, Vientos to second, Narváez to third.3–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 5Vientos walked, Alonso scored, Narváez to second, Vogelbach to third.3–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 43–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 33–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 5Narváez walked, McNeil scored, Vogelbach to second, Alonso to third.3–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 43–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 33–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 5Lindor grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Ortega scored, Nimmo out at second.3–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3McNeil singled to right, Ortega scored, Lindor to third.3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 1Ozuna doubled to right, Acuña Jr. scored, Olson scored and Riley scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 55%
- Fair odds
- ATL -110
- NYM +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.8 – 4.5 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1562 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | +19 | ATL: Yonny Chirinos: team allows 0.74 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · NYM: Kodai Senga: team allows 0.94 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +35 Elo | ATL 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.8 | Runs scored | 4.322nd of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.819th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.7 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 1st of 3038–21 | Road vs home | 28–2719th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 8–1 NYM in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.