New York Yankees at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- DJ LeMahieuBatting1-4
- Michael KingPitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Braves- Eddie RosarioBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 2Rosario homered to center (422 feet), Ozuna scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 63%
- Fair odds
- ATL -134
- NYY +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 5.1 – 5.7 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +9 | NYY: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · ATL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +96 Elo | ATL 63.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 57.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.91st of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.28th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +1.71st of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 3025–32 | Road vs home | 39–202nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 0–2 ATL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.