Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching3.1 IP, 6 ER, 1 K
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Joan AdonPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Schwarber homered to center (405 feet).7–8
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–8
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 26–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–8
- 6Thomas singled to left, Rutherford scored, Thomas to second.6–8
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–8
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 36–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 26–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 16–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–7
- 4Abrams homered to right (367 feet), Vargas scored and Rutherford scored.6–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–7
- 4Rutherford singled to left, Alu scored and Garrett scored, Vargas to second.6–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 4Alu singled to right, Smith scored, Garrett to second.6–2
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 36–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 26–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 4Schwarber homered to right center (378 feet), Rojas scored.6–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 24–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 4Rojas singled to left, Cave scored.4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 4Cave doubled to left, Realmuto scored.3–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 4Realmuto doubled to left, Turner scored and Harper scored.2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nationals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 48%
- Fair odds
- WSH -100
- PHI +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.7 – 4.7 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +16 | PHI: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · WSH: Joan Adon: team allows 0.82 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +15 Elo | PHI 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 50.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.127th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.724th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 13th of 3032–31 | Road vs home | 27–3526th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 6–4 WSH in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.