Boston Red Sox at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Pablo ReyesBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- James PaxtonPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Nationals- Stone GarrettBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Garrett homered to center (442 feet).2–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 8Ruiz homered to center (398 feet), Thomas scored and Meneses scored.2–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 8Reyes homered to left center (398 feet), Verdugo scored.2–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 4Garrett homered to center (415 feet).0–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 3Chavis homered to left (389 feet).0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nationals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 48%
- Fair odds
- WSH -101
- BOS +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.8 – 4.8 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −1 | BOS: James Paxton: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +15 Elo | BOS 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.127th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.824th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 13th of 3028–28 | Road vs home | 25–3528th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 1–0 WSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.