Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Maikel GarciaBatting2-4
- Alec MarshPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Red Sox- Adam DuvallBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- James PaxtonPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 5Duvall doubled to left, Reyes scored.0–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Verdugo hit sacrifice fly to left, Casas scored.0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 64%
- Fair odds
- BOS -138
- KC +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.4 – 5.1 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1440 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −25 | −9 | KC: Austin Cox: team allows 1.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · BOS: James Paxton: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +103 Elo | BOS 64.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 58.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.98th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.719th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +0.213th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 29th of 3016–43 | Road vs home | 32–2715th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 1–2 BOS in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.