Kansas City Royals at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Freddy FerminBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Alec MarshPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Turner doubled to center, Realmuto scored.6–9
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–9
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 26–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging6–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 16–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–8
- 6Turner homered to left (383 feet), Realmuto scored and Rojas scored.6–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–8
- 5Harper homered to center (407 feet), Bohm scored.6–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–3
- 5Garcia stole third. Garcia scored on throwing error by catcher Realmuto.6–3
- 5Garcia scored on throwing error by catcher Realmuto.6–3
- 5Witt Jr. grounded out to shortstop, Blanco scored.5–3
- 5Pitch 8 : Ball In Play5–3
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball 34–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking4–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 5Garcia singled to center, Waters scored, Blanco to third.4–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Blanco reached on bunt single to pitcher, S. Taylor scored, Waters to second.3–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 4Fermin homered to left center (389 feet).2–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 3Stott singled to center, Bohm scored, Harper to third.1–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 2Fermin homered to left center (386 feet).1–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 64%
- Fair odds
- PHI -139
- KC +139 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.0 – 4.7 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1442 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −3 | KC: Alec Marsh: team allows 0.55 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +96 Elo | PHI 63.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 58.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +0.115th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 29th of 3015–39 | Road vs home | 28–218th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 1–0 PHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.