Kansas City Royals at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jordan LylesPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Phillies- Nick CastellanosBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Blanco sacrificed, S. Taylor scored.7–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–5
- 6Turner singled to right, Stott scored.6–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 26–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 6Blanco singled to right, Melendez scored and Fermin scored.6–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 24–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 6Fermin doubled to left, Olivares scored, Melendez to third.4–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 23–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 6Massey homered to right center (412 feet).3–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 4Rojas doubled to left, Marsh scored and Stott scored.2–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Witt Jr. homered to left center (410 feet), Garcia scored.2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 1Castellanos homered to left (390 feet), Bohm scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 63%
- Fair odds
- PHI -139
- KC +139 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.8 – 4.6 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1440 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | −13 | KC: Jordan Lyles: team allows 0.74 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +94 Elo | PHI 63.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 58.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +0.115th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 30th of 3014–39 | Road vs home | 28–207th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.