Kansas City Royals at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- MJ MelendezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zack GreinkePitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching7.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Harper hit sacrifice fly to center, Schwarber scored, Bohm to third.4–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–7
- 5Castellanos homered to left center (429 feet), Harper scored.4–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 2Schwarber homered to center (421 feet), Stubbs scored.4–5
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–5
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 34–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 24–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 2Melendez homered to left center (387 feet).4–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 1Stott homered to left center (356 feet), Bohm scored and Harper scored.3–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Waters hit sacrifice fly to right, Massey scored, Fermin to third.3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Beaty singled to right, Perez scored, Fermin to second, Massey to third.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Massey singled to center, Garcia scored, Perez to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 64%
- Fair odds
- PHI -140
- KC +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.2 – 4.9 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1441 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +11 | KC: Zack Greinke: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +103 Elo | PHI 64.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 58.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +0.114th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 29th of 3015–40 | Road vs home | 29–217th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 1–1 PHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.