Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- MJ MelendezBatting3-4
- Cole RagansPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 11 K
Red Sox- Pablo ReyesBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Reyes homered to left (373 feet), Devers scored, Casas scored and Urías scored.2–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 7Witt Jr. doubled to center, Garcia scored.2–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 7Garcia singled to right, Isbel scored.1–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 20–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 10–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 5Wong doubled to right, Reyes scored.0–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 3Yoshida hit sacrifice fly to left, Reyes scored.0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 61%
- Fair odds
- BOS -134
- KC +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.7 – 5.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1439 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +19 | +7 | KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 0.94 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +78 Elo | BOS 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.98th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.718th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +0.212th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 29th of 3015–41 | Road vs home | 30–2615th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.