Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- MJ MelendezBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Jordan LylesPitching8.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Red Sox- Triston CasasBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Fermin homered to left center (398 feet).3–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 4McGuire singled to center, Verdugo scored, Urías thrown out at home.2–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Verdugo doubled to center, Devers scored and Yoshida scored.2–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 4Melendez homered to left center (369 feet).2–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 2Casas homered to right center (431 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Melendez homered to right center (445 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 63%
- Fair odds
- BOS -136
- KC +136 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.6 – 5.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1441 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −4 | KC: Jordan Lyles: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BOS: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +95 Elo | BOS 63.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 57.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.98th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.719th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 29th of 3016–42 | Road vs home | 31–2715th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 1–1 BOS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.