Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Michael MasseyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Red Sox- Adam DuvallBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kutter CrawfordPitching3.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Duran doubled to center, Verdugo scored.9–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 29–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking9–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 19–2
- 7Massey homered to right (396 feet), Isbel scored.9–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play9–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 37–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 27–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 17–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–2
- 7Isbel doubled to center, Waters scored.7–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 6Melendez homered to center (402 feet), Perez scored.6–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 6Massey grounded out to third, Garcia scored.4–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 5Wong singled to right, Verdugo scored.3–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 5Duvall homered to left center (424 feet).3–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 4Waters homered to right center (414 feet), Beaty scored.3–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Isbel hit sacrifice fly to left, Beaty scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 61%
- Fair odds
- BOS -136
- KC +136 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.6 – 5.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1437 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −8 | KC: Brady Singer: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BOS: Kutter Crawford: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +81 Elo | BOS 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 57.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.618th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.5 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 30th of 3015–42 | Road vs home | 31–2614th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 0–1 BOS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.