Oakland Athletics at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Zack GelofBatting4-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Ken WaldichukPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Nationals- Stone GarrettBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Trevor WilliamsPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Downs singled to center, Smith scored, Call to third.7–8
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play7–8
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul7–7
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 37–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging7–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 27–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 17–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–8
- 9Garrett scored, Rutherford scored, Smith to third, Call safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Allen.7–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–5
- 9Smith walked, Ruiz scored, Rutherford to second, Garrett to third.7–5
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 47–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 37–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 27–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking7–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 17–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–4
- 9Vargas hit sacrifice fly to center, Meneses scored, Ruiz to third.7–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Automatic Strike 17–4
- 9Garrett singled to left, Downs scored, Ruiz to second, Meneses to third.7–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 17–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–2
- 7Garrett hit sacrifice fly to center, Thomas scored.7–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–2
- 7Brown singled to center, Soderstrom scored and Bleday scored.7–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–1
- 5Gelof homered to center (395 feet).5–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–1
- 3A. Díaz singled to left, Bleday scored, Gelof to third.4–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 1Garrett doubled to left, Meneses scored, Ruiz to third.3–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nationals 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 61%
- Fair odds
- WSH -131
- OAK +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.3 – 4.9 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1418 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −6 | OAK: Ken Waldichuk: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · WSH: Trevor Williams: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +74 Elo | WSH 60.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 56.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.9 | Runs allowed | 5.127th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.4 | Margin | −0.825th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 30th of 3015–43 | Road vs home | 24–3428th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 0–2 WSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.