Oakland Athletics at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Jordan DiazBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Paul BlackburnPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Nationals- Ildemaro VargasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Joan AdonPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Alu homered to right center (419 feet).2–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–8
- 7Vargas homered to left center (407 feet), Thomas scored and Ruiz scored.2–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 5Ruiz homered to right center (381 feet).2–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 32–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 4Alu hit sacrifice fly to left, Vargas scored.2–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 2Garrett singled to right, Smith scored, Vargas to second.2–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 2Vargas singled to right, Ruiz scored, Smith to third.2–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1J. Diaz singled to left, Bleday scored and Gelof scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nationals 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 59%
- Fair odds
- WSH -129
- OAK +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.4 – 5.0 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1421 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | +11 | OAK: Paul Blackburn: team allows 0.89 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · WSH: Joan Adon: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +66 Elo | WSH 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 56.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.322nd of 30 |
| 30th of 306.0 | Runs allowed | 5.127th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.4 | Margin | −0.826th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 29th of 3015–41 | Road vs home | 22–3428th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.