Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Keibert RuizBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Trevor WilliamsPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 7 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting2-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ruiz singled to right, Meneses scored, Smith to third.4–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–8
- 6Cave homered to center (428 feet), Turner scored.3–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–6
- 4Schwarber homered to right center (447 feet), Cave scored and Rojas scored.3–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 3Bohm homered to right center (419 feet).3–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 23–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 3Schwarber homered to right (363 feet), Rojas scored.3–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 33–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 3Thomas homered to left (359 feet), Abrams scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 31–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Ruiz homered to right (390 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 57%
- Fair odds
- PHI -123
- WSH +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.5 – 5.0 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −1 | WSH: Trevor Williams: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +51 Elo | PHI 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.614th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 16th of 3027–29 | Road vs home | 30–216th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 3–3 PHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.