Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Ildemaro VargasBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Phillies- J.T. RealmutoBatting2-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Vargas doubled to right, Meneses scored, Ruiz to third.2–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–6
- 7Realmuto homered to right center (390 feet), Stott scored.1–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 7Castellanos homered to left center (373 feet), Castro scored.1–4
- 7Pitch 9 : Ball In Play1–4
- 7Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball 21–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 11–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 6Turner homered to left center (404 feet), Stott scored.1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 6Vargas doubled to left, Meneses scored, Smith to third.1–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 58%
- Fair odds
- PHI -125
- WSH +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.3 – 4.8 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | −16 | WSH: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.81 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.80 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +59 Elo | PHI 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 55.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.212th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 16th of 3028–31 | Road vs home | 32–226th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 4–5 PHI in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.