Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting0-4
- MacKenzie GorePitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Phillies- Nick CastellanosBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching9.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Bohm singled to center, Wilson scored, Turner to third.0–7
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–7
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 30–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 20–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 10–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 4Rojas reached on infield single to third, Wilson scored.0–6
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–6
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 20–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 3Castellanos homered to right center (365 feet).0–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 2Wilson homered to left center (429 feet).0–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1Castellanos homered to center (413 feet), Harper scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Harper doubled to center, Bohm scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 58%
- Fair odds
- PHI -124
- WSH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.5 – 4.9 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +7 | WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PHI: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +57 Elo | PHI 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.614th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 16th of 3028–30 | Road vs home | 31–227th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 4–4 PHI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.