Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Joey MenesesBatting2-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Josiah GrayPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Meneses homered to left center (394 feet).5–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 14–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 7Meneses homered to left center (406 feet), Thomas scored.4–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Stott singled to right, Turner scored.2–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 5Harper homered to right center (397 feet), Schwarber scored.2–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 4Vargas homered to left center (391 feet), Garrett scored.2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Turner doubled to center, Castellanos scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 56%
- Fair odds
- PHI -123
- WSH +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.5 – 5.0 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | −1 | WSH: Josiah Gray: team allows 0.71 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +41 Elo | PHI 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.614th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 16th of 3027–30 | Road vs home | 31–216th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 3–4 PHI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.