Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Kerry CarpenterBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Matt ManningPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Red Sox- Justin TurnerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Turner homered to left (367 feet).6–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 8Carpenter homered to left (336 feet).6–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 25–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 6Torkelson homered to center (417 feet).5–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 34–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 24–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 14–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 5Vierling grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Baddoo scored, Greene out at second.4–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Haase homered to left center (371 feet).3–1
- 5Pitch 8 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 4Turner scored on error, Reyes safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Maton, Reyes safe at second on error.2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Greene singled to right, Maton scored, Baddoo to second.2–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Carpenter homered to left (361 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 63%
- Fair odds
- BOS -125
- DET +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.4 – 4.9 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −22 | +9 | DET: Matt Manning: team allows 1.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +89 Elo | BOS 62.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 55.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.910th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.618th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 19th of 3026–31 | Road vs home | 34–2712th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 0–4 BOS in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.