Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Joey GalloBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 K
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Alex FaedoPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kepler singled to left, Luplow scored, Polanco to second, Julien to third.5–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–9
- 8Carpenter reached on infield single to second, Torkelson scored on throwing error by second baseman Polanco.4–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–9
- 8Vierling scored on Balazovic wild pitch, Torkelson to second on wild pitch by Balazovic.4–8
- 8Vierling scored on Balazovic wild pitch, Torkelson to second on wild pitch by Balazovic.4–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–7
- 7Haase singled to left, Rogers scored, McKinstry to third.4–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–6
- 7Torkelson homered to left center (415 feet).4–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul4–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 24–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 6Castro doubled to left, Wallner scored.4–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 5Torkelson homered to right center (380 feet).3–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 2Vierling singled to left, Haase scored, Vierling to second, Greene to third.3–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 2Greene singled to center, McKinstry scored, Haase to third.3–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 23–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 2Gallo homered to right (413 feet), Jeffers scored.3–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 2Correa homered to center (421 feet).1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Carpenter singled to right, Greene scored on error and Vierling scored on fielding error by right fielder Kepler, Carpenter to second.0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 56%
- Fair odds
- MIN -101
- DET +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.3 – 4.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −13 | MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · DET: Alex Faedo: team allows 0.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +42 Elo | MIN 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.929th of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.821st of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.927th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 19th of 3027–31 | Road vs home | 24–3327th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 4–5 DET in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.