Arizona Diamondbacks at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Christian WalkerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Twins- Matt WallnerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dallas KeuchelPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 9Wallner homered to right center (415 feet), Polanco scored.3–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 9Kepler homered to right center (438 feet).3–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 9Walker homered to left (399 feet).3–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 22–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 12–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 7Gurriel Jr. doubled to center, Carroll scored.2–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 6Correa singled to left, Castro scored and Julien scored.1–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 5Pham grounded into fielder's choice to second, C. Kelly scored, Carroll out at second.1–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 54%
- Fair odds
- MIN -113
- ARI +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.6 – 4.9 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −6 | ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIN: Dallas Keuchel (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +30 Elo | MIN 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.03rd of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 30th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 10th of 3029–27 | Road vs home | 32–249th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 0–2 MIN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.