Arizona Diamondbacks at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.Batting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching3.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Twins- Ryan JeffersBatting3-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Kenta MaedaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Wallner singled to right, Solano scored, Luplow to second.1–12
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–12
- 8Luplow singled to center, Julien scored, Solano to third.1–11
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–11
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–11
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 11–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–11
- 6Kepler homered to center (435 feet).1–10
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–10
- 5Jeffers homered to left (355 feet).1–9
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–9
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 31–8
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–8
- 4Correa grounded into fielder's choice to second, Julien scored, Kepler out at second.1–8
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–8
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–7
- 4Taylor homered to right (360 feet).1–7
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 3Jeffers doubled to left, Wallner scored.1–6
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 3Castro hit sacrifice fly to left, Correa scored.1–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 3Wallner doubled to right, Kepler scored, Correa to third.1–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 56%
- Fair odds
- MIN -113
- ARI +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.4 – 4.7 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +5 | ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIN: Kenta Maeda: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +39 Elo | MIN 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.13rd of 30 |
| 19th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 8th of 3029–26 | Road vs home | 31–2410th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 0–1 MIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.