Arizona Diamondbacks at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.Batting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Twins- Jorge PolancoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Taylor homered to right (364 feet).2–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 6Kepler homered to right center (408 feet).2–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Herrera reached on infield single to shortstop, Gurriel Jr. scored, McCarthy to third.2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 3Polanco homered to right (387 feet).1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Gurriel Jr. homered to left (388 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 52%
- Fair odds
- MIN -110
- ARI +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.5 – 4.7 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | +4 | ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.78 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +12 Elo | MIN 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.13rd of 30 |
| 19th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 7th of 3029–25 | Road vs home | 30–2410th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.