Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Carlos CorreaBatting2-3
- Sonny GrayPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Tigers- Jake RogersBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Short singled to left, Carpenter scored and Haase scored, Báez to third.0–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 20–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 7Rogers homered to left center (402 feet).0–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 20–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 4McKinstry singled to center, Carpenter scored, Báez to third.0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Báez singled to center, Cabrera scored, Carpenter to third.0–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Greene scored on error, Cabrera safe at first on throwing error by second baseman Polanco.0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 48%
- Fair odds
- DET -101
- MIN +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.5 – 4.5 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +9 | MIN: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · DET: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +16 Elo | MIN 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.928th of 30 |
| 2nd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.923rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −1.027th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 16th of 3027–30 | Road vs home | 23–3327th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 4–4 DET in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 8.