Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Carlos CorreaBatting2-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Tigers- Nick MatonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Joey WentzPitching3.0 IP, 8 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Maton homered to right center (377 feet), Carpenter scored and Short scored.9–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–3
- 8Kepler hit by pitch, Taylor scored, Gallo to second, Solano to third.9–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–0
- 3Taylor grounded out to second, Castro scored, Luplow to third.8–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 27–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging7–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 17–0
- 2Correa homered to right (353 feet), Solano scored and Polanco scored.7–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 1Jeffers homered to left (395 feet), Correa scored and Kepler scored.4–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball 31–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Correa doubled to left, Solano scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 46%
- Fair odds
- DET -101
- MIN +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.4 – 4.4 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −9 | MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · DET: Joey Wentz: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +27 Elo | MIN 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.928th of 30 |
| 2nd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.922nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.927th of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 19th of 3026–30 | Road vs home | 23–3227th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 3–4 DET in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.