Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Carlos CorreaBatting1-4
- Kenta MaedaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Reese OlsonPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7McKinstry doubled to right, Carpenter scored and Báez scored, Rogers to third.0–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 6Greene homered to right center (453 feet).0–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 46%
- Fair odds
- DET -101
- MIN +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.4 – 4.4 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −1 | MIN: Kenta Maeda: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · DET: Reese Olson: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +26 Elo | MIN 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.028th of 30 |
| 4th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.922nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.927th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 20th of 3027–32 | Road vs home | 25–3326th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 4–6 DET in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 10.