Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Kerry CarpenterBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Red Sox- Triston CasasBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Chris SalePitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Wong singled to right, Story scored, Casas to second.2–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 5Greene singled to right, Báez scored, Short to second.2–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 5Carpenter homered to right center (434 feet).1–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 4Casas homered to right center (401 feet), Verdugo scored and Reyes scored.0–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Yoshida grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Refsnyder scored, Devers out at second.0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 59%
- Fair odds
- BOS -121
- DET +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.3 – 4.7 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +13 | DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · BOS: Chris Sale: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +61 Elo | BOS 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.99th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.213th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 19th of 3026–30 | Road vs home | 33–2713th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 0–3 BOS in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.