Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Akil BaddooBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 8 K
Red Sox- Adam DuvallBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Kutter CrawfordPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 6Torkelson grounded out to shortstop, Vierling scored.3–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 12–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 5Duvall homered to left (403 feet), Story scored and Yoshida scored.2–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–6
- 5Baddoo homered to left (390 feet).2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Duvall singled to left, Story scored.1–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 31–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 21–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 3Turner homered to left center (401 feet).1–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2Wong tripled to right, Casas scored.1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Cabrera grounded out to shortstop, Torkelson scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 53%
- Fair odds
- BOS -117
- DET +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.3 – 4.6 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | −14 | DET: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.87 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · BOS: Kutter Crawford: team allows 0.72 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +20 Elo | BOS 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.618th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.213th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 17th of 3027–31 | Road vs home | 34–2814th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 1–4 BOS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.