Boston Red Sox at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Alex VerdugoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Nationals- Keibert RuizBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Josiah GrayPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 4Reyes scored on Ro. Garcia wild pitch.5–4
- 4Reyes scored on Ro. Garcia wild pitch.5–4
- 4Verdugo sacrificed into double play, center to shortstop to second, Duran scored, McGuire thrown out at second, Reyes to third.4–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 34–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 24–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 3Garrett doubled to right, Meneses scored and Ruiz scored.3–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 3Ruiz doubled to right, Rutherford scored and Thomas scored, Meneses to third.3–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 3Casas singled to right, Devers scored and McGuire scored, Story to third.3–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Verdugo homered to right center (405 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nationals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 50%
- Fair odds
- WSH -103
- BOS +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.7 – 4.7 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +13 | BOS: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · WSH: Josiah Gray: team allows 0.66 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +1 Elo | WSH 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.127th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.724th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 15th of 3027–28 | Road vs home | 25–3428th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.