Boston Red Sox at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Luis UriasBatting2-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Chris SalePitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Nationals- Joey MenesesBatting2-5, 5 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Garrett singled to right, Abrams scored, Ruiz to second.7–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–9
- 7Devers homered to right center (453 feet), Refsnyder scored.7–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–9
- 7Urías homered to center (401 feet), Duvall scored, Reyes scored and Casas scored.5–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–9
- 6Garrett hit sacrifice fly to center, Meneses scored, Ruiz to second.1–9
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–9
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–8
- 6Meneses doubled to left, Thomas scored and Downs scored.1–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 5Adams singled to left, Ruiz scored and Garrett scored.1–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 5Garrett doubled to center, Meneses scored, Ruiz to third.1–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 5Meneses doubled to center, Call scored and Downs scored.1–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Downs scored on error, Meneses safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Devers.1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 3Casas homered to left center (431 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 56%
- Fair odds
- BOS -100
- WSH +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.7 – 4.7 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | −16 | BOS: Chris Sale: team allows 0.70 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · WSH: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.82 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +41 Elo | BOS 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.127th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.724th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 15th of 3028–29 | Road vs home | 26–3528th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 1–1 WSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.