Philadelphia Phillies at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting3-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Blue Jays- Daulton VarshoBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Harper homered to right center (404 feet).9–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 18–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging8–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–4
- 8Cave homered to center (419 feet).8–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking7–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 27–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–4
- 6Bohm singled to left, Cave scored.7–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–4
- 6Schwarber hit sacrifice fly to right, Realmuto scored, Cave to third.6–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–4
- 5Harper scored on error and Castellanos scored on error, Stott safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Espinal.5–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 5Castellanos doubled to left, Schwarber scored, Harper to third.3–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 3Biggio singled to right, Belt scored and Springer scored.2–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 3Harper homered to center (412 feet).2–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 2Varsho homered to right (375 feet), Biggio scored.1–2
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 31–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 56%
- Fair odds
- TOR -115
- PHI +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.9 – 4.2 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +7 | PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +45 Elo | TOR 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.01st of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 13th of 3031–31 | Road vs home | 32–2613th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 2–1 TOR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.