Chicago Cubs at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Dansby SwansonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Justin SteelePitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Blue Jays- Whit MerrifieldBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Morel doubled to left, Bellinger scored.5–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–4
- 6Espinal hit a ground rule double, Schneider scored, Biggio to third.4–4
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–4
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking4–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 34–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 24–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 5Merrifield homered to center (406 feet), Espinal scored.4–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–1
- 4Swanson homered to left center (429 feet), Happ scored and Bellinger scored.4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 4Bellinger singled to right, Hoerner scored, Happ to third.1–1
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Guerrero Jr. singled to center, Varsho scored.0–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 54%
- Fair odds
- TOR -115
- CHC +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.1 – 4.4 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +5 | CHC: Justin Steele: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +25 Elo | TOR 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.02nd of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 14th of 3027–27 | Road vs home | 30–2515th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 1–0 TOR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.