Chicago Cubs at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Cody BellingerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Javier AssadPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Blue Jays- Brandon BeltBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Belt homered to center (406 feet).6–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–1
- 4Kirk singled to right, Biggio scored.6–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 16–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 4Tauchman singled to center, Suzuki scored.6–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking5–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–0
- 4Suzuki doubled to left, Candelario scored and Swanson scored.5–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 23–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 13–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 1Bellinger homered to right center (359 feet), Happ scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Hoerner homered to left center (389 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 57%
- Fair odds
- TOR -118
- CHC +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.9 – 4.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +12 | CHC: Javier Assad: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +49 Elo | TOR 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.02nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.58th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 15th of 3026–27 | Road vs home | 30–2411th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.