Minnesota Twins at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Joey GalloBatting4-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting3-3
- Taijuan WalkerPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Castro grounded out to shortstop, Turner scored, Realmuto to third.8–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul8–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–0
- 7Gallo homered to right center (412 feet), Wallner scored and Vázquez scored.8–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 25–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 15–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 7Wallner singled to center, Kepler scored, Jeffers to third.5–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 7Correa homered to left center (380 feet).4–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 4Gallo homered to left center (357 feet).3–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 4Wallner homered to right (390 feet).2–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Kepler grounded out to shortstop, Julien scored, Polanco to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 58%
- Fair odds
- PHI -120
- MIN +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.3 – 4.7 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +11 | MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +55 Elo | PHI 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3027–34 | Road vs home | 34–226th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 0–1 PHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.