Minnesota Twins at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Jorge PolancoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brent HeadrickPitching3.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Phillies- Bryson StottBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rojas homered to left (392 feet), Sosa scored.2–13
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–13
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–13
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–13
- 6Realmuto homered to right center (408 feet).2–11
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–11
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–10
- 6Stott homered to right center (385 feet).2–10
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–10
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–9
- 4Stott hit sacrifice fly to center, Turner scored.2–9
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–9
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–8
- 4Castellanos singled to left, Bohm scored, Turner to third.2–8
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–8
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–7
- 4Turner doubled to left, Schwarber scored, Bohm to third.2–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 2Turner singled to left, Schwarber scored.2–6
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–6
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 32–5
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 22–5
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 2Bohm hit sacrifice fly to center, Rojas scored, Schwarber to second.2–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 2Schwarber singled to center, Sosa scored, Rojas to third.2–4
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 22–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 2Rojas grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Realmuto scored, Sosa to second, Wilson out at third.2–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 55%
- Fair odds
- PHI -116
- MIN +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.0 – 4.3 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −5 | MIN: Dallas Keuchel: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +31 Elo | PHI 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 20th of 3027–33 | Road vs home | 33–226th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.