Chicago Cubs at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Patrick WisdomBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching3.0 IP, 8 ER, 2 K
Blue Jays- Daulton VarshoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Hyun Jin RyuPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Merrifield doubled to left, Espinal scored, DeJong to third.4–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–10
- 8DeJong singled to right, Varsho scored, Espinal to third.4–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–9
- 8Espinal singled to left, Biggio scored, Varsho to second.4–9
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul4–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 24–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–8
- 7Wisdom homered to center (412 feet), Swanson scored.4–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–8
- 4Varsho singled to center, Belt scored and Guerrero Jr. scored, Springer to second.2–8
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–8
- 4Guerrero Jr. singled to left, Merrifield scored, Belt to second.2–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–5
- 2Springer singled to right, Belt scored, Guerrero Jr. to third.2–5
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 22–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 2Guerrero Jr. singled to left, Merrifield scored, Belt to second.2–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 2Varsho homered to right (391 feet), Biggio scored and Jansen scored.2–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Swanson doubled to left, Happ scored and Hoerner scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 49%
- Fair odds
- TOR -111
- CHC +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.0 – 4.2 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −18 | CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TOR: Hyun Jin Ryu: team allows 0.90 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +5 Elo | CHC 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.02nd of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 12th of 3028–27 | Road vs home | 30–2615th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 2–0 TOR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.