Minnesota Twins at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Jordan LuplowBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Phillies- Jake CaveBatting2-4
- Ranger SuarezPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Polanco singled to right, Julien scored, Solano to second.3–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball 12–0
- 3Polanco reached on infield single to third, Julien scored, Solano to second.2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Luplow homered to center (410 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 55%
- Fair odds
- PHI -117
- MIN +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.2 – 4.5 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −2 | MIN: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +38 Elo | PHI 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.712th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.311th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 20th of 3028–34 | Road vs home | 34–236th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 1–1 PHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.