San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Joc PedersonBatting2-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sean HjellePitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Sabol reached on infield single to shortstop, Matos scored, Camargo to second, Ramos to third.4–10
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–10
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking3–10
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 33–10
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–10
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 23–10
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–10
- 9Camargo hit by pitch, Flores scored, Ramos to second, Matos to third.3–10
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–10
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 22–10
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–10
- 7Schwarber homered to right (444 feet), Rojas scored.2–10
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–8
- 7Rojas tripled to left, Bohm scored and Realmuto scored.2–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–8
- 5Stott doubled to right, Bohm scored, Realmuto to third.2–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–6
- 5Harper hits inside-the-park home run to left center (405 feet).2–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 3Bohm homered to center (408 feet).2–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 12–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 3Wade Jr. homered to center (428 feet).2–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 2Sosa homered to center (410 feet), Stott scored.1–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Harper singled to left, Turner scored.1–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 54%
- Fair odds
- PHI -114
- SF +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.2 – 4.5 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −10 | SF: Scott Alexander: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +27 Elo | PHI 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.712th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 12th of 3030–29 | Road vs home | 34–246th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 3–0 PHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.