San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Wilmer FloresBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tristan BeckPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Braves- Orlando ArciaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Max FriedPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Pederson walked, Conforto scored, Flores to second, Estrada to third.4–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 44–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 33–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 23–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 8Acuña Jr. scored on throwing error by catcher Bailey, Rosario safe at second on error.3–3
- 8Acuña Jr. scored on throwing error by catcher Bailey, Rosario safe at second on error.3–3
- 3Flores homered to left (394 feet), Estrada scored.3–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 2Arcia homered to left (396 feet), Pillar scored.1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Matos homered to left center (425 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 64%
- Fair odds
- ATL -133
- SF +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.8 – 5.4 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1569 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +14 | SF: Jakob Junis: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · ATL: Max Fried: team allows 0.72 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +101 Elo | ATL 64.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 57.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.81st of 30 |
| 10th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.16th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.71st of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 13th of 3029–29 | Road vs home | 42–201st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 0–2 ATL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.