Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Jake CaveBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching7.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Nationals- Dominic SmithBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Trevor WilliamsPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Cave homered to right (412 feet), Marsh scored.3–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 21–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 9Marsh singled to center, Stott scored.1–4
- 9Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–4
- 9Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 31–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 20–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 11–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 1Smith singled to left, Meneses scored and Ruiz scored.0–4
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Ruiz doubled to right, Abrams scored and Thomas scored, Meneses to third.0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 57%
- Fair odds
- PHI -113
- WSH +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 5.1 – 4.8 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −9 | PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · WSH: Trevor Williams: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +52 Elo | PHI 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher).
| PHI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.724th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 7–5 WSH in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 12.